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| Content | BULK-POWER RELIABILITY AND COMMERCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF DISTRIBUTED RESOURCES Brendan Kirby and Eric Hirst Consulting in Electric-Industry Restructuring Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37830 February 5, 2000 1. INTRODUCTION The electric power industry is currently going through an amazing transformation. For most of its history the electric power industry has relied on ever-larger and more efficient central generating stations. Now, commercial restructuring is sweeping the U.S. electricity industry. Indications are that distributed micro-energy sources may be more prevalent in the future. Three independent forces are driving the trend to small generators: #The electric power industry is being restructured and will become one in which competitive generation suppliers compete for customers, replacing the traditional structure of vertically integrated regulated monopolies with franchise service territories and captive customers. #Natural gas is the fuel of choice for new generation. Twenty years ago, it was illegal to burn gas to produce electricity. Now gas is plentiful, competitively priced, and much cleaner than other fossil fuels. #Technological advances promise to make small-scale generation cost-competitive with large power plants. Efficiency improvements for combustion turbines in the 10- to 100-MW range have transformed them from expensive peaking units to base-load generators with efficiencies above 55 percent when operated as combined cycle plants. More recently, microturbines in the tens-of-kilowatts range are coming to market. Their manufacturers claim that costs will soon be competitive with delivered retail power prices. Internal combustion engines are significantly improved. In the longer term, fuel cells, photovoltaics, wind, and Stirling engines are getting closer to commercial viability. Distributed generation also makes cogeneration possible on a much wider scale, and cogeneration improves the economics of distributed generation and may accelerate deployment. Combined, these three forces will accelerate the use of distributed generation technologies. In addition, opening markets to competition encourages energy producers and users to seek alternatives to the incumbent utility, including self-generation, storage and load control. Competitive markets also favor technologies that have low capital costs, are quick to |
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